Kawakami: Analyzing John Lynch's comments on Brandon Aiyuk and the 49ers' pick (2024)

SANTA CLARA, Calif. — John Lynch sent out some interesting flares about the San Francisco 49ers’ thought process and plans at his pre-draft presser on Monday, which either were fired off for distraction or could’ve been relatively honest hints from somebody who mostly hates to fib, even during a period when the whole league likes to lie.

Obviously, the 49ers’ general manager wasn’t offering up all of his strategy to the public. They have a lot of phone calls to make and take. We’ll get a transparent view of how Lynch and head coach Kyle Shanahan are approaching the draft, and their relationship and negotiations with wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk, when the first round of the draft takes place Thursday evening. And not until then.

However, a good executive can use a platform like this to set the scene for upcoming moves. To prepare a fervent fan base and offer up a preliminary thought process for what’s likely to come.

I think that generally describes most of Lynch and Shanahan’s media sessions, actually. They’re not good or happy B.S.-ers. If they pull off a surprise move, it usually comes after a long bout of silence, not a lot of misleading babble. They like to be as straightforward as they can in public without totally tipping their hands. And with so much bubbling around the 49ers right now, I definitely think that’s what was happening during Lynch’s 28-minute session on Monday.

Here are the conclusions I made after it was over:

The 49ers seem to be leaning away from taking a tackle with their first-round pick.

The consensus is that this is a great draft year for very talented tackles. As many as six or seven could be selected in the first round. The 49ers, sitting with the No. 31, would seem to be decently situated to get a good tackle, plop him immediately into the right-tackle spot, and then see if he can move over to left tackle whenever Trent Williams retires. Or, if 31 is too late for it, the 49ers could package a couple of later picks to move up 10-12 picks to get somebody they really like.

Except: Lynch absolutely didn’t sound like a GM who has fallen in love with a tackle headed to the back end of the first round or who has a coaching staff demanding that the 49ers draft a tackle that high.

Instead, it sounded like Lynch was ruminating about some of the second- or third-tier guys, like Washington’s Roger Rosengarten, who might not have classic tackle size, maybe project better to guard immediately, and then can be developed over the long-term at tackle. And who, because of all that, also seem destined to be second-round picks.

“The interesting thing is that those linemen in this draft, we think a lot of them have flexibility — can be tackles and/or guards,” Lynch said when I specifically asked if this is the year for the 49ers to draft a tackle in the first round. “So that’s nice, that you take somebody with some flexibility.

“I think there are some options. And part of the draft, you’re not always drafting for the immediate. Sometimes you’re drafting for future needs.”

It’s hard to play tackle in Shanahan’s system. It’s almost impossible to ask a rookie to do it, unless he’s just an elite prospect, and you don’t get elite tackles at 31 or even 21. So, even though I think the 49ers’ need at tackle is large enough that reaching for somebody at 31 or with a trade-up would be worthwhile this year, this isn’t their style and sure doesn’t seem like their intent right now.

Which leads to …

Lynch seems very open to trading out of the first round, so yes, the 49ers’ streak of not making a first-round pick might extend to a third year.

Their last first-round pick came in 2021, you might remember, when the 49ers traded their own pick that year plus their 2022 and 2023 first-rounders to get to No. 3 and select Trey Lance. The 49ers have waited a long time to be back in the first round, and now they might get the most value if they use it as bait for a QB-needy team that was squeezed out by the rush at the top of the draft.

“I think 31 is an interesting spot,” Lynch said. “I think at the end of Day 1, teams are eager to go get someone. So I would imagine there will be some calls. We’ll be open and flexible.”

Washington’s Michael Penix Jr. might get picked a lot higher than 31, but if he’s still on the board when it’s the 49ers’ turn, watch out. Oregon’s Bo Nix seems a lot more likely to last that long, and if a team wants him badly enough, maybe the 49ers can accumulate a couple of extra second-day picks.

It does seem counter-productive to keep going this long without adding first-round picks, but the 49ers have made it at least to the NFC Championship Game in each of the last three seasons all while not landing a starter with a first-round pick since they took Aiyuk No. 25 overall in 2020.

Or the 49ers could just do what they almost always do: Take a defensive lineman with their top pick.

This is now my guess for what happens on Thursday, and it’s hardly a daring guess. The 49ers have taken a defensive lineman with their top pick four times in Shanahan and Lynch’s previous seven drafts.

In 2017, their first draft, they selected Solomon Thomas No. 3 overall — and that was with former first-round defensive linemen DeForest Buckner and Arik Armstead already on the roster.

In 2019, they selected Nick Bosa No. 2 overall.

In 2020, they selected Javon Kinlaw.

In 2022, they selected Drake Jackson No. 61 overall (when they didn’t have a first-round pick).

You’d think the 49ers would be overloaded with defensive-line talent after all that draft investment, but they’ve taken a lot of losses there since March: They released Armstead when he refused to take a drastic pay cut and lost Kinlaw to free agency (though I’m sure they didn’t try very hard to bring him back). They also lost two other former first-rounders (both by other teams) in free agency, Chase Young and Clelin Ferrell.

They still have Bosa and Javon Hargrave and added Leonard Floyd, Maliek Collins and Yetur Gross-Matos in free agency, but I can’t imagine that Lynch and Shanahan feel totally complete at that position.

John Lynch on Brandon Aiyuk. pic.twitter.com/5IzgXE3uJM

— San Francisco 49ers (@49ers) April 22, 2024

49ers fans wondering about Aiyuk’s future will have to hold their breaths through the first round.

From what I’ve heard recently and from every cautious word Lynch used when asked about Aiyuk’s situation, it’s clear that there’s no immediate resolution foreseeable in these negotiations. That is, unless the 49ers get floored by a trade offer, which almost certainly would have to include a good spot in the first round. And if it happens, this would probably occur right before or during the first round.

I’m not suggesting that things are 100 percent bad between Aiyuk and the 49ers right now. Certainly, the situation with Deebo Samuel two years ago was more tense. For instance, I don’t believe Aiyuk is going to make the same kind of public trade request that Deebo made before the draft in 2022.

“Our wish is that he’s here and part of the Niners for the rest of his career,” Lynch said of Aiyuk. “We’re working through that.”

But Lynch confirmed that Aiyuk has not been participating in the team’s current voluntary workouts. I believe that the two sides are wary enough about each other’s positions that neither can rule out a total breakup. It’s all negotiating tactics, no doubt. But it’s a high-stakes negotiation, with trip wires everywhere on both sides.

And because they wouldn’t want to wait until next year’s draft to recoup an actual player for Aiyuk if they can’t see a path to a long-term deal, the 49ers would have to make that decision by, say, the middle of the first round Thursday. If the round passes and nothing happens, Aiyuk is likely to eventually sign a long-term deal and be with the 49ers for many years. But until then, nobody knows for sure. Dramatic enough for you?

(Top photo of Brandon Aiyuk: Perry Knotts / Getty Images)