Graincorp share price lifts off as dividend is maintained and debts plunge (2024)

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ASX 200 investors are bidding up the Graincorp share price today. But why?

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Bernd Struben

Bernd Struben earned his BA in economics from the University of Michigan in 1991, with post-graduate studies in environmental economics at the University of Connecticut. Over the years he’s written about and analysed the tourism industry in the Caribbean; Europe’s commercial real estate markets; and, since moving to Australia in 2010, global and Aussie share markets.

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Graincorp share price lifts off as dividend is maintained and debts plunge (3)

The Graincorp Ltd (ASX: GNC) share price is charging higher today.

Shares in the S&P/ASX 200 Index(ASX: XJO) agribusiness and processing companyclosed yesterday trading for $8.07. In morning trade on Thursday, shares are swapping hands for $8.27 apiece, up 2.5%.

For some context, the ASX 200 is up 1.3% at this same time.

This comes following the release of Graincorp's half year results for the six months ending 31 March (1H FY 2024).

Here's what ASX 200 investors are mulling over today.

  • Underlying earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) of $164 million, down 57% from $383 million in 1H 2023
  • Net profit after tax (NPAT) of $50 million, down 75% from $200 million in 1H FY 2023
  • Underlying NPAT: $57 million, down 72.5% year on year
  • Core cash of $495 million, up from $349 million year on year
  • Fully franked interim dividend of 24 cents per share, in line with last year

What else happened during the half year?

The big earnings hit that's failing to dampen the Graincorp share price rally today was driven in part by a $125 million dollar half year EBITDA decline in the company's Agribusiness, which came in at $101 million for the six months.

The company said global grain market conditions hit its Agribusiness segment amid increasing global production, commodity prices decline and moderating global trade flow risks.

Graincorp's Nutrition and Energy segment reported EBITDA of $76 million, down from $131 million in 1H 2023. The fall in earnings came as improved volumes were offset by moderated crush margins, with the company citing a lower supply of canola seed and weaker vegetable oil prices year on year.

The ASX 200 stock's strong core cash position of $495 million was up $146 million year on year. That's partly thanks to the company's $104 million post tax take from the sale of its stake in United Malt Group in November.

Net debt at 31 March was $765 million, down from $1.42 billion a year earlier.

Eligible investors can expect to receive the interim dividend payout on 18 July.

What did management say?

Commenting on the results boosting the Graincorp share price today, CEO Robert Spurway said:

Graincorp delivered a resilient result in 1H 2024, as grain and oilseed markets normalise following three extraordinary years for the industry.

As expected, we have experienced a decline in overall production across East Coast Australia and lower supply chain and crush margins relative to 1H 2023. Strong volumes in Southern New South Wales and Victoria have been offset by below average conditions in Queensland and Northern NSW.

Now what?

Looking to what could impact the Graincorp share price in the months ahead, the company maintained its FY 2024 guidance provided earlier this month, stressing this "remains subject to a range of variables". The company forecasts underlying EBITDA of $25 million to $280 million and underlying NPAT of $60 million to $80 million.

"Despite the moderation in industry conditions in FY24, the long-term fundamentals of the agriculture sector remain strong," Spurway said.

He added:

The industry plays a pivotal role in human and animal nutrition, and as a feedstock source for global decarbonisation efforts.

We remain confident in our average earnings through-the-cycle EBITDA, which we have increased by $10 million to $320 million, following the acquisition of XF Australia

With today's intraday gains factored in, the Graincorp share price is up 14% so far in 2024.

Graincorp share price lifts off as dividend is maintained and debts plunge (2024)

FAQs

Why are GrainCorp shares dropping? ›

Investors have been selling this grain exporter's shares this week after it downgraded its earnings guidance for FY 2024. GrainCorp now expects to report FY 2024 underlying EBITDA in the range of $250 million to $280 million. This is down from its previous guidance range of $270 million to $310 million.

Is GrainCorp a good investment? ›

Graincorp Limited Class A has a consensus rating of Strong Buy, which is based on 6 buy ratings, 2 hold ratings and 0 sell ratings. The average share price target for Graincorp Limited Class A is AU$9.37. This is based on 8 Wall Streets Analysts 12-month price targets, issued in the past 3 months.

Does GrainCorp have a DRP? ›

Participation in the DRP is entirely voluntary. You may choose to participate in the DRP by completing the appropriate DRP election form and returning it. You can also obtain the form from our website www.graincorp.com.au or you can contact our Share Registry on 1300 883 034.

When did GrainCorp IPO? ›

GrainCorp was founded in 1916, corporatised in 1989 and listed on the Australian Stock Exchange in 1998.

What is the outlook for GrainCorp? ›

With profit expected to grow by a double-digit 15% over the next couple of years, the outlook is positive for GrainCorp. It looks like higher cash flow is on the cards for the stock, which should feed into a higher share valuation.

Is GrainCorp government owned? ›

In 1992, a group of grain farmers banded together to buy the company from the NSW Government. Since then, GrainCorp, as it became known, has transformed from a NSW-based grain handling company into an international agribusiness with a diversified revenue stream.

Is GrainCorp ethical? ›

GrainCorp is committed to acting ethically and with integrity and transparency in all business dealings and to putting effective systems and controls in place to safeguard against any form of Modern Slavery taking place within the business or our supply chain.

Who is the competitor of GrainCorp? ›

GrainCorp's competitors and similar companies include AGRANA Trading, JBS USA, Tunas Baru Lampung and Tereos.

How does GrainCorp make money? ›

GrainCorp operates as an agribusiness company involved in storage and logistics, marketing and processing of grains and oils.

Does dividend harvesting work? ›

Is dividend harvesting profitable? Dividend harvesting can be profitable for investors who follow some basic steps. It's important to purchase a stock before the ex-dividend date and sell it afterward. A trade may not be profitable if a stock declines more than the dividend amount.

Is DRP a good investment? ›

The benefits of a Dividend/Distribution Reinvestment Plan (DRP) cannot be overstated. For investors, particularly those with a long-term investment horizon, it could mean the difference between working until you're 70 or retiring earlier in a strong financial position.

What is a DRP option for dividends? ›

Plan which provides for automatic reinvestment of shareholder dividends in more shares of a company's stock, often without commissions. Some plans provide for the purchase of additional shares at a discount to market price.

How often does GrainCorp pay dividends? ›

There are typically 2 dividends per year (excluding specials), and the dividend cover is approximately 2.0. Our premium tools have predicted Graincorp Limited with 89% accuracy.

Is GrainCorp a buy or sell? ›

What are the analyst and broker recommendations for Graincorp? The overall consensus recommendation for Graincorp is Buy.

How big is GrainCorp? ›

We operate the largest grain storage and handling network on the east coast of Australia, operating more than 150 regional receival sites and 20 million metric tonnes of storage capacity.

What investors want that GrainCorp doesn't want to give? ›

Investors can't help but like a big capital return, whether that's a buyback or special dividend. But management teams usually prefer investing for growth and Spurway has his eyes on biofuels, which could further diversify earnings with a future-facing venture, and ramp up its existing crushing volume and earnings.

Is Harvest Minerals a good buy? ›

The overall consensus recommendation for Harvest Minerals is Strong Buy. You can view the full broker recommendation list by unlocking its StockReport.

Will General Mills stock go up? ›

The average price target for General Mills is $72.31. This is based on 16 Wall Streets Analysts 12-month price targets, issued in the past 3 months. The highest analyst price target is $84.00 ,the lowest forecast is $61.00. The average price target represents 7.19% Increase from the current price of $67.46.

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